Could NASA’s Moon Base Destroy Evidence of Life’s Origins on Earth?

It may sound counterintuitive, but it’s actually fairly common in science: The act of investigating something can easily hinder our ability to do so again in the future.

Take the Moon, for example. New research from the European Space Agency and the Belgian university KU Leuven shows that the exhaust released during spacecraft landings could contain and distribute methane across the Moon’s surface, contaminating samples from pole to pole.

The study conducted a simulation based on the ESA’s Argonaut missions, which are scheduled to begin launching in 2031, using models of exhaust migration on the Moon to see how particles would move and accumulate. The researchers found that there would be a “cold trap” effect in so-called Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs) that could preferentially capture these compounds. Amazingly, that’s true across the entire Moon, meaning that even landings at one pole would contaminate PSRs at the north end.

In their paper, the researchers put it plainly: “Our simulation results suggest that approximately half of the released C⁢H4 molecules end up trapped in PSRs at the South or North poles within 7 lunar days, with their distribution dictated by interactions with the lunar surface.”

Credit: Tomekbudujedomek/Getty Images

That’s particularly significant because of the discovery of water ice in permanently shadowed lunar craters, where temperatures can remain low enough for water ice to remain intact for potentially millions of years.

The idea is that much of this ice was deposited on the Moon by ancient asteroids and comets, along with some of the ice and water on Earth, too. Study of these ice deposits could therefore provide insight into terrestrial history—but only if the water remains largely untouched. If, on the other hand, human beings are a source of observed compounds, then the history contained in this water ice could be permanently obscured.

One past proposal has been to designate one of the poles as off-limits and put as many ships as possible on the other pole. Unfortunately, as mentioned, this simulation shows that even such an extreme measure could still lead to “non-negligible” contamination of the whole sphere.

The researchers don’t really have much in the way of suggestions for the future, suggesting only that future research is needed to better understand the problem. That’s true enough, but not exactly satisfying, as NASA and other federal space agencies award contracts to industrial space companies to colonize and commercialize the Moon. Those private entities aren’t likely to hold back on developing the Moon, simply because of science.