Why China Has Unexpectedly Delayed Its Participation in the New Moon Race

While the physicists, engineers, and astronauts of NASA’s 1970s Apollo program doubtless wanted the best for the future of space science, they might also take some satisfaction in how things are playing out right now. As seen in the behavior of both the United States and China, the simple reality has never been clearer: Traveling to the Moon is really, really hard.

The latest evidence came late Sunday evening, when the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) announced that the Chang’e-7 lunar mission was being delayed until further notice.

“[The] Chang’e-7 lunar probe does not meet launch conditions, and its launch therefore cannot take place during the planned window this year,” the CMSA said in a statement. “The assessment was conducted following the principle of prudence, reliability and absolute mission success.”

Now, that’s not exactly a ton of context. The mission’s core technology may not be living up to expectations, but one commonly circulated theory is that the delay is simply due to weather. On the original launch date, the launch site will be affected by Typhoon Narra, with winds in the range of a moderate tropical storm.

An artist’s impression of the Chang’e-7 lander.
Credit: By 中国新闻社

Unfortunately, this seems to have scrubbed the entire launch window, with no further suitable window likely until early- to mid-2027.

Chang’e-7 uses the same type of engine as an unmanned launch that recently exploded about a minute after takeoff. As it should, the CMSA has stringent safety standards; at this point in the development of China’s space program, it will see avoiding human losses as much more important than hitting timelines.

So, it’s also possible that the project was delayed due to technical errors. If the main reason to go to the Moon is to inspire the nation, you really, really don’t want it to lead to the televised death of a bunch of national heroes. Still, we are left to wonder why China wouldn’t announce weather as the cause of the problem, though the agency is famously tight-lipped, as a rule.

Another factor is the fact that the CMSA is in direct competition with NASA’s Artemis program, which has recently experienced delays, too. This takes some of the time pressure off of China, which knows just as well as any Westerner that SpaceX is nowhere near ready for a crewed landing.

It seems that the overall race to the Moon will go on longer than expected, but neither side would admit defeat upon the other’s first arrival, anyway. Once one side establishes the beginnings of a southern polar Moon base, the other will simply move the goalposts. If the Chang’e program beats the Artemis program to reaching the Moon, then the new Moon race will be about establishing a permanent human presence.

The Chinese are currently claiming they’ll only move forward if they’re sure of “absolute mission success,” while NASA’s current political leadership is increasingly gung-ho about making progress at any cost. We’ll see whether this causes the United States to move forward quickly enough to thwart China’s plans to develop the Moon.