Astronomy or Megaconstellations: New Study Shows We Can’t Have Both
A new study published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics lays out evidence that massive planned increases in the number of satellites in orbit could be catastrophic for astronomy. On the one hand, astronomers have been sounding this alarm for some time—but this time, the countdown to potential disaster is shockingly short.
Right now, according to the European Southern Observatory’s (ESO’s) accounting, there are about 15,000 satellites in orbit. The agency estimates that currently proposed programs would increase this number to 1.7 million—more than 113 times the current total.
To be clear, that increase is on top of many of the programs over which ExtremeTech has spilled gallons of digital ink, programs that already motivated 120 astronomers to urge the FCC to revisit restrictions, and which could be so bright that they block the views of even orbital telescopes.
The problem isn’t just visible light, either. As seen with low-frequency radio astronomy, satellite communications transmissions can interfere with readings across the electromagnetic spectrum.
Credit: ESO
This study used simulations from the Paranal Observatory in Chile. It found that current projections for launch volumes could lead to a future with thousands of illuminated human-made objects visible through the ESO’s Very Large Telescope.
Hubble orbits at low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude, so the proposed light pollution would affect it and several other space telescopes. This demonstrates that it’s not just ground-based astronomy that would suffer if we filled the skies with reflective (let alone self-illuminating) satellites.
The study specifically names certain projects, notably huge constellations of tens of thousands of satellites from companies like SpaceX, but also the company Reflect Orbital. It specifically notes that these and similar projects could have an outsized impact on our ability to observe the universe.
This is all coming on at an alarming rate. The megaconstellations of tomorrow really are of tomorrow—that is to say, not of some unknown time in the future, but a finite number of years. While many of Musk’s greatest dreams may be hare-brained, he and other business leaders certainly have the ability to launch an unprecedented volume of material into space.
So, it’s up to regulators to rein in such rapid expansion in orbit. With the Trump administration as the primary regulator, that seems unlikely. Those who want to see a pullback in launch cadence will likely have to wait until 2028, at the earliest.
