Kuo doubts rumor of $1B Apple chip stockpile at TSMC
Market rumors claim TSMC is holding onto a billion-dollar stockpile of Apple chips due to not having enough memory to complete packaging. However, a prominent analyst doubts it to be the case.
The persisting memory supply crisis has caused problems with the supply chain, in both sourcing chips for products and in paying high prices for them too. While there is certainly a crisis at hand, not every major supply chain-related claim will be completely true.
On August 10, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote about market rumors that TSMC had a stockpile of 2-nanometer chips made for Apple. Valued at $1 billion, the pile was supposedly made of processor wafers for semi-finished products.
The apparent reason was due to a DRAM supply shortage, because Apple has memory attached to the System on Chip (SoC) for its Apple Silicon chips. Since there’s not enough memory available, those chips couldn’t be packaged.
Kuo adds that the apparent evidence for the claim was TSMC’s Q2 2026 earnings call, which mentioned “increased inventory days” due to the ramp-up of production of 2-nanometer chips.
However, Kuo disagrees with the claims, because Apple and TSMC’s working relationship involves intense planning. Something that couldn’t realistically cause this to happen at all.
A doubtful stockpile
In discussing the rumor, Kuo admits that his industry research shows Apple’s hardware shipments have been downgraded in 2026 due to memory shortages.
The key problem with the rumor is that Apple’s processor orders with TSMC are planned about three months in advance. They’re also based on the amount of memory available, meaning TSMC wouldn’t be put into a position where it produces massive quantities of chips without the memory to go with it.
TSMC certainly can produce and stockpile half-made products in advance. But, since the bottleneck isn’t TSMC, Kuo says Apple has “little reason” to pay TSMC to make the stockpile in the first place.
Memory supply is tight, Kuo adds, but he insists that he hasn’t heard of any “dramatic development” like a billion-dollar chip stockpile that’s awaiting more memory to arrive. “It’s hard for such dramatic developments to occur,” he states.
As for the call commentary as proof, Kuo points out that it couldn’t be directly attributed to an Apple chip stockpile for a few reasons. Partly because TSMC’s inventory includes finished goods, raw materials, supplies, and spare parts as well as semi-completed items.
TSMC also increases its “inventory days” in tandem with production ramp-ups for new advanced processes. This is not a phenomenon that’s new to TSMC at all.
Lastly, TSMC isn’t just supplying 2-nanometer chips to Apple. It also supplies to other firms, including AMD and MediaTek, meaning any such stockpiling would affect multiple companies.
Evidently, rumors aren’t just limited to supposed specs and colors of iPhones.
